Holiday Inventory Is Bought in October, Not December

December gets the credit. October does the work.

Working capital for holiday inventory is decided in October, when the orders go in, not in December, when the registers ring. Most owners treat the holidays as a selling problem. It rarely is. Selling is the part they already know how to do. The holiday problem is a cash timing problem: the money for the season leaves the account in the fall, and it only comes back if the shelves were stocked in time.

The stakes justify planning around it. The National Retail Federation forecasts November and December sales of $1.013 trillion this year, up 4.2% from 2025 (NRF holiday forecast, reported by Reuters, October 15, 2026). Holiday sales have averaged roughly 19% of annual retail sales over the past five years, according to the NRF. For many stores, those two months carry the year.

Why the bill arrives before the revenue

Holiday inventory is paid for on a schedule that has nothing to do with when it sells:

• Supplier lead times. Seasonal stock ordered in the fall ships weeks later. The best-selling items get allocated to the orders placed first, and late orders get what is left.
• Deposits and balances due. Suppliers commonly take a deposit to hold an order and the balance before it ships. Both payments clear long before the first holiday sale.
• Minimum orders. Seasonal assortments come in set quantities. You buy the full run up front, at the moment your cash is also covering payroll, rent, and regular restocking.

Put together, the largest inventory check of the year lands in the same weeks as every other fall expense. Owners who wait until November to think about it face a worse version of the same choice: rush pricing and expedited freight, or shelves that run empty during the two months that matter most.

An empty shelf in December cannot be fixed in December. The fix was an order placed in October.

One owner who ordered early

A retail business recently put $100,000 in working capital to work on inventory ahead of the season. The point of the story is not the amount. It is the sequence. The owner lined up the capital first, then placed the order while standard pricing and full selection were still available, instead of financing whatever was left after the early buyers had picked through it.

That sequence is available to most owners doing steady volume. The process started with one application plus the last four months of business bank statements, the same starting file described in our documents guide. No seasonal prediction, no perfect credit story. Just current statements and an order to fund.

How to size your own order

Borrowing the right amount matters as much as borrowing early. Too little and you stock out by mid-December. Too much and January becomes a markdown problem.

• Start with last year's sell-through. What sold out early, and what was still sitting there in January? Depth belongs on the proven sellers.
• Use the growth you are actually seeing. If sales are running ahead of last year, stock to that trend. Skip the optimistic version.
• Price the whole order. Product, freight, and deposits. The number to fund is the full landed cost, not just the merchandise.
• Hold back a reserve. Keep room for one mid-season reorder of the items that move fastest, while they can still be restocked.

When to apply, and what starts it

Apply when you place the order, not when the invoice comes due. Starting early is what turns financing into a planning tool instead of an emergency measure, and it gives you a clear answer while there is still time to adjust the order itself.

FortisFi reviews one application against 18+ financing products, including working capital and lines of credit, so an owner sees what they may qualify for across options rather than betting the season on a single lender's answer. FortisFi is not a lender; it connects owners with traditional and non-traditional capital. The starting paperwork is one application plus the last 4 months of business bank statements. Owners doing $20k+/month in sales are the ones this is built for.

Key Takeaways

• The inventory that sells in December is ordered in October: deposits, minimum orders, and supplier lead times all come due before holiday revenue arrives.
• Size the order from last year's sell-through and the full landed cost, then fund the whole order rather than just the merchandise.
• One application plus four months of bank statements is enough to start, and applying before you need the money is what keeps standard pricing and full selection on the table.

Stocking up for the season? Start with the funding-readiness checklist, then Apply with FortisFi or call 646-374-8140.

This post is for informational purposes only and is not financial, legal, or tax advice. Financing decisions should be made with a qualified professional. FortisFi, LLC connects business owners with traditional and non-traditional capital; it is not a lender and does not make financing decisions.